The debate has been heating up lately as to whether or not Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have enough time to catch Novak Djokovic in the race to finish year end no. 1 so I took the time to look at the remaining points that can be accumulated and broke it down into a big list of scenarios where players can still make some moves up the ladder. But don’t let the tables and numbers scare you I broke everything down in the simplest of terms.
Current race to London Standings:
1. Novak Djokovic: 9010
leads Federer by 990 points
leads Nadal by 2165 points
2. Roger Federer: 8020
leads Nadal By 1275
3. Rafael Nadal: 6745
First we’ll look at the raw numbers from each tournament without combining anything.
Standings after Basel:
Player/Round |
Federer |
Nadal |
Djokovic |
R32 (+0) |
8020 |
6745 |
9010 |
R16 (+45) |
8065 |
6790 |
9010 |
Q (+90) |
8110 |
6835 |
9010 |
SF (+180) |
8200 |
6925 |
9010 |
RUP (+300) |
8320 |
7045 |
9010 |
W (+500) |
8520 |
7245 |
9010 |
Standings after Paris(not counting Basel):
Player/Round |
Federer |
Nadal |
Djokovic |
R64 (+10) |
Bye |
Bye |
Bye |
R32 (+45) |
8065 |
6790 |
9055 |
R16 (+90) |
8110 |
6835 |
9100 |
QF (+180) |
8200 |
6925 |
9190 |
SF (+360) |
8320 |
7105 |
9370 |
RUP (+600) |
8620 |
7345 |
9610 |
W (+1000) |
9020 |
7745 |
10010 |
Standings after London(not counting previous tournaments):
Player/Round |
Federer |
Nadal |
Djokovic |
Showing Up (+0) |
8020 |
6745 |
9010 |
1 RR W (+200) |
8220 |
6945 |
9210 |
2 RR W (+400) |
8420 |
7145 |
9410 |
3 RR W (+600) |
8620 |
7345 |
9610 |
SF (varies) |
|
|
|
RUP (+1000)(4-1) |
9020 |
7745 |
1010 |
Undefeated (+1500) |
9520 |
8245 |
10510 |
There is such a huge gap between nunbers one and two and two and three that it is highly improbable that one tournament will cause a shift among them. So let’s look at what happens if each player goes on a run
Tournament Wins:
Player/Tournament |
Federer |
Nadal |
Djokovic |
Nothing |
8020 |
6745 |
9010 |
Wins Basel (+500) |
8520 |
7245 |
9010 |
Wins Paris (+1000) |
9020 |
7745 |
10010 |
Wins WTF (+1500) |
9520 |
8245 |
10510 |
Basel & Paris (+1500) |
9520 |
8245 |
10010 |
Basel & WTF (+2000) |
10020 |
8745 |
10510 |
Paris and WTF (+2500) |
10520 |
9245 |
11,510 |
Basel, Paris & WTF(+3000) |
11,020 |
9745 |
11,510 |
Scenarios:
EDIT: Due to Nadal pulling out of Paris and World Tour Finals he is no longer in contention for Year end #1
Novak’s Chances:

As the current World #1 he has the easiest job to maintain his ranking through the end of the year. The worst case scenario would be if Federer managed to sweep the last 3 tournaments to end the season. There would be no way Djokovic could catch Roger with the lead he has right now. The most he could add to his total would be 1,600.(Runner up at Paris and 4-1 at WTF). (10,610 vs. 11,020) If Roger were to go on such a roll the most Djokovic would need to retain his ranking would be a RUP(4-1) at WTF and win paris. Roger would add 2,600 to his total and djokovic would add 2,000 and seeing as how Djokovic already has a 1,000 point lead it would be more than enough. (11,010 vs. 10,620) This assumes outside opposition doesn’t impede their results. If someone else takes Djokovic out early on it gets a little tricky.
Worst Case scenarios:
Djokovic loses early in Paris and Roger wins it and Basel the week before. Djokovic would have to win WTF +Fed doesn’t make it to the final. A runnerup by Fed there would have him beat out Djokovic by the narrowest margin of 10 points.
Djokovic finishes as a RUP at WTF and Paris. Not so bad because Fed would have to win everything except Basel to pass him.
Djokovic loses in QF’s at Paris and 2 RR wins.(+760) Fed could pass him with RUP’s at each tournament to pass(8,020 +300 + 600 + 1,000= 9,920(Fed) vs. 9,010 vs. 760 = 9,760)
0-3 at WTF Semis in Paris = 9.020 + 360= 9,360. Fed would need to make a final at London or Paris and could pass him with Sf’s everywhere else alone. (8,020+ 180 + 360 + 1,000 = 9,560 or 180 + 600 + 600= 9,400)
Djokovic makes semis at Paris and WTF.(+1260 = 10,260) Fed would need to win Basel, Paris, and 2 RR’s to pass him.
These are pretty extreme examples and Novak’s chances only become problematic if Roger doesn’t stop winning. Djokovic only needs 2 runner ups to ensure safety as long as they aren’t to Roger.
Rogers Chances:

Had the Fifth set in the Wimbledon final gone a little differently this would be an entirely different conversation, but the past is the past and we’re only looking forward. These next 3 tournaments leave 3,000 points up for grabs for the Swiss maestro and luckily for him Novak isn’t competing in Basel so he has time to cut the 1,000 point deficit between them to just under 500 points. The one thing he cannot afford to do is suffer an early loss at Paris or London because he would be forfeiting up to 1,000+ rankings points that can end his bid to end #1.
Best Case Scenarios:
-Wins Basel, runnerup at Paris and London(4-1) to someone other than Djokovic. (8020+ 500 + 600 + 1000 =10,120) The most points Djokovic would be able to garner would be 960(360 sf at Paris + 600 semi at london =9970) This is the best scenario where Roger can end the year number 1 without winning the two bigger events.
-Wins Basel, Wins London, runnerup in Paris.(8,020 + 2,600 = 10,620) If Djokovic wins Paris but fails to make the final of London Federer would pass him by a tiny margin of just 10 points.(9,010 + 1,000 + 600 = 10,610)
-Wins Basel, Wins Paris, SF at London. (8,020+ 2,100= 10,120) Similar scenario to the first but by losing in London Sf’s that leaves two open spots for Novak to be in the final there which is much more costly than the first scenario. Djokovic would only need to gather 1,120 points to pass him which becomes much easier if he were to only finish runnerup at either tournament(600-1,000 points at one tournament alone)
Things to keep in mind:
Although this weeks tournament in Basel offers the lowest payout in terms of points to the winner it may be the most crucial event of the year. Federer needs to cut down the current deficit between him and Djokovic before he can start making a press for Year end #1 and the best way to do that is this week where Novak can’t add any points to his total. Davis Cup points have also been excluded from the list, because even though Fed can still add points to his total with victories for his country the rules are a little fuzzy because the Year end number one award has always been crowned at the conclusion of World Tour Finals and not Davis Cup. But who knows, the race for number one has never before comedown to the final of Davis Cup and if that determines it the ITF will definitely announce their stance on the rule as it draws closer.